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International Research Journal of Plant Science

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Development of tree growth prediction with gray model in an old ├ó┬?┬? growth Chamaecyparis obtusa stand, in the

Abstract

Akazawa Forest Reserve

Akazawa Reserve Forest in kiso town is a precious forest for research of science and well protected all the time. Hinoki is the dominant tree species whose age about 300 years used to construct the palace in past mainly. In 1988 a plot of 4 hectares was established and the survey had been done periodically in the following 20 years. In this research, we used the collected data of the growth of tree individuals and the stand. Recently in Japan the long rotation management process of conifer plantation is being popular. The collected past and present dataset through this process plays a very important role for the future prediction of forest resource. With the gray theory of mathematics, this research developed a program of calculating tree growth by using the data of the stand surveyed in 1988, 1998, 2003 and 2008. By this program a prediction has been made for the growth of the tree stand in year 2018, 2028 and 2038 respectively. In the understory, the average forecast error of Chamaecyparis obtusa was 23.8% in 1998, 18.6% in 2003 and 11.9% in 2008. For Thujopsis dolabrata, it was 15.8% 13.6% and 9.7% respectively in the three years. And broad-leaved trees├ó┬?┬? error was 17.6%, 12.9% and 10.7% in 1998, 2003 and 2008. In middle layer, Chamaecyparis obtusa├ó┬?┬?s errors were 22.8%, 16.8% and 8.9% respectively, while they were 16.5%, 18.5% and 11.3% for Thujopsis dolabrata, and 14.9%, 11.9%, 8.7% for broad-leaved trees. In the dominant layer, they were 22.4%, 13.6%, 6.8% for Chamaecyparis obtusa, 9.8%, 13.5%, 17.9% for Thujopsis dolabrata, and 15.6%, 12.8%, 8.9% for broad-leaved trees in the specified years respectively

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