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Review and suggestions to the demand forecast model in highway concessions projects in Brazil| Abstract

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Journal of Research in Economics and International Finance

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Review and suggestions to the demand forecast model in highway concessions projects in Brazil

Abstract

Paranaiba Adriano de Carvalho, FONSECA Adelaida Pallavicini, COSTA Abimael de Jesus Barros

The aim of this work points out criticism to projections of demand in projects of road concessions in Brazil’s model, and propose suggestions for serving as a tool to minimize the risks of economics agents participating in the process of granting highways. The methodology of this study is divided into three phases. The first stage involves content analysis of the viability study of technical, economic and environmental (EVTEA) of the BR - 050MG and BR - 285RS, as examples of projects of economic feasibility in Brazil. The second phase is the appointment of the weaknesses of the demand projections in the projects, building criticism of the current model. Finally, the third and final stage is the construction of the proposed model in question. As a result of this investigation, the authors note that the use of such projections which are made in Brazil, may incur in spurious models, given to the need of application of time series modeling without the projected economic scenarios constructed by deterministic models. The suggestion is adopting Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models in which the rate of demand growth is explained by the growth rate of existing logistics chains in the concession area.

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